英ＥＵ離脱による円高、国内企業の収益見通しの重しに－エコノミスト

【記者：Chris Cooper】

　　（ブルームバーグ）：　　６月24日には一時１ドル＝99円２銭を付
け、７月５日午前は102円台前半で推移している。

• ジャパンマクロアドバイザーズの大久保琢史チーフエコノミスト

• アベノミクスは終わった

• Ｂｒｅｘｉｔ（英国のＥＵ離脱）で日本への最大の影響は円高だろう

• 日本企業の収益は減少するだろう、減少幅は円高の進行度合いによる

• 為替が１ドル＝90円になるかもしれない大きなリスクがある

• ゴールドマン・サックス証券の湯澤康太アナリスト

• 円は複数の通貨に対して強含んでおり、国内自動車メーカーの決算に重くのしかかる

• 備考：ゴールドマンはトヨタの今期の営業利益予想を21％下方修正し、１兆7800億円とした

• 東海東京調査センターの武藤弘明チーフエコノミスト

• 低い収益見通しは、今月の日本銀行の政策決定会合で一層の金融緩和への圧力となる

• 追加緩和に踏み切らないと、さらなる円高進行の可能性も

• アトランティス・インベストメント・リサーチのエドウィン・マーナー社長

• 輸出企業は大変なことになる

• 為替水準が数年にわたって徐々に変わるなら調整可能だが、今起きているように急激に変動すると、直ちに調整することはできない、極めて深刻だ

• 野村証券の桾本将隆アナリスト

• 野村は英国のＥＵ離脱国民投票後に欧州自動車市場の今期と来期の成長見通しを下方修正

• トヨタの営業利益見通しを3090億円下方修正し、１兆7700億円に

• Ｂｒｅｘｉｔ投票を受け、大幅な円高が見込まれることから収益見通しを下方修正

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Japan Inc. Gets Brexit Bargain on $23 Billion Outstanding Deals

• Yen surge gives Japan's companies more purchasing power abroad

• NTT Data, Asahi behind biggest pending overseas acquisitions

By Dave McCombs and Shigeru Sato

(Bloomberg) -- 

Japanese companies, which have embarked on a $210 billion global acquisition spree over the past three years, are getting a surprise bargain out of Brexit.

The yen soared Friday to the highest in more than two years, boosting local firms' purchasing power for deals abroad and potentially saving them hundreds of millions of dollars on purchases they've already announced. NTT Data Corp.and Asahi Group Holdings Ltd. are among Japanese companies with a combined $23 billion of overseas acquisitions agreed to in the past 12 months that are still pending, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

The unexpected windfall could offer a small silver lining as export-driven corporate Japan braces for economic uncertainty, with the Topix index falling Friday by the most since 2011. Canon Inc., the world's biggest camera maker, warned that British voters' decision to leave the European Union could undermine the economic recovery in Japan, while automotive supplier Exedy Corp. said it may consider moving its office out of the U.K.

"It's a bargain for those Japanese firms which have built cash in yen at home and have an acquisition deal in the works," Makoto Shiono, a Tokyo-based partner at merger advisory firm Industrial Growth Platform Inc., said by phone Friday. "The cost of their deals clinched in U.S. dollars and euros has gotten lower."

Peroni Beer

Japan's currency jumped as much as 7.2 percent Friday, the most in more than three decades, and strengthened past 100 per dollar for the first time since 2013. It is now up 17 percent since the start of the year. The yen gained as much as 10 percent against the euro, the most intraday in more than seven years.

The biggest pending outbound deal from Japan is NTT Data's $3.1 billion purchase of Dell Inc.'s technology services businesses, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. NTT Data, an arm of the former Japanese telephone monopoly, clinched the deal in March when the dollar was valued at about 113.45 yen. The Japanese currency climbed as far as 99.02 yen at one point in Tokyo trading Friday, shaving about 44 billion yen ($430 million) off the local-currency price tag for the deal.

Asahi, the brewer of Super Dry lager, agreed in April to buy Anheuser-Busch InBev NV's Peroni, Grolsch and Meantime brands for 2.55 billion euros ($2.8 billion). The Japanese beermaker agreed to acquire the brands in February, when the euro was trading at about 128 yen. The Japanese currency strengthened Friday to as much as 109.57 yen to the euro, at that point making the deal about 47 billion yen cheaper for Asahi in local-currency terms.

To be sure, the yen could weaken in coming days if market jitters subside or the Bank of Japan intervenes in the currency market, which would erase some of the benefits for Japanese acquirers. The actual price of the purchases may not be affected if the companies pay for them with foreign currency they hold or borrow offshore to fund the deals.

Asahi said in an e-mailed statement it doesn't expect the U.K. vote outcome to have an effect on its purchase of the European brands. The company will use external funds to pay for the acquisition, Asahi spokesman Takuo Soga said by phone, declining to comment further. NTT Data hasn't decided how it will finance the acquisition from Dell, and it hasn't set a target completion date, Nobuhiko Toda, a spokesman for the company, said by phone.

Risk Aversion

Including deals at home, cash-rich Japanese companies have been involved in $66 billion of acquisitions this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While the yen's strength gives companies greater firepower to make purchases abroad, Japanese companies may need to take more time to examine how Brexit would affect the business prospects of overseas companies they're targeting, according to Toshiro Takeda, a Tokyo-based principal at M&A consulting firm Mercer Japan Ltd.

Uncertainty in Europe will erode Japanese companies' appetite for business expansion in the region, and they may take a wait-and-see approach toward substantial investment, said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at SMBC Friend Securities Co.

"If you are a brave investor, the U.K. is on sale right now," Jacky Scanlan-Dyas, a corporate partner at Hogan Lovells in Tokyo, said by phone. "The pound is very low and interest rates are very low -- but in my experience Japanese corporates don't invest for short-term profits, they invest for long-term relationships."

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Brexit Opposed by Japan Inc. as $59 Billion Rides on Ballot (2)

• Shinzo Abe to top Japan executives favor Britain within EU

• About 1,300 Japanese companies employ 140,000 workers in U.K.

By Chris Cooper and Kiyotaka Matsuda

(Bloomberg) -- 

Japan Inc. has $59 billion at stake on the June 23 referendum in the U.K., when Britons vote to either leave or stay in the European Union.

That's the amount Japanese companies have invested in the U.K., which benefits more from the Asian nation than any other country outside Europe apart from the U.S., according to figures compiled by the Japan External Trade Organization.  More than 1,300 Japanese companies -- including Toyota Motor Corp., Hitachi Ltd. and Nissan Motor Co. -- employ over 140,000 people in the U.K., Prime Minister David Cameron said last month.

That explains why officials from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to executives of top Japanese companies have been vocal in their support of Britain staying within the 28-nation trading bloc. Recent polls showing more Britons favored exiting the EU roiled the sterling, which dropped to a three-week low versus the dollar on Monday, while the Bank of England said uncertainty surrounding the vote is damping U.K.'s economic growth. 

Force a Rethink

"It would be harder to invest in the country should it vote to leave the EU," said Kazuko Yamazaki, a senior economist at Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. "Some companies may consider opening other bases around Europe."

Should the U.K. leave the EU, the biggest destination for international direct investment in the bloc risks more than 107,000 manufacturing jobs likely to be created by 2030 because of the deepening of the the single market, the Centre for Economics and Business Research estimates.

Hitachi Ltd., which opened a train manufacturing facility in the U.K. last year, supports the U.K. staying in the EU, and an exit vote may "force us and similar companies to rethink" their U.K. operations, Chairman Hiroaki Nakanishi wrote in an op-ed in the U.K.'s Mirror newspaper this week. 

"We still have a European vision, and would be disadvantaged in pursuing it from the U.K.," he wrote, adding those advocating Brexit have no answer to how the country could negotiate cost-free access to the huge EU market from a position outside it.

Less Attractive

During a visit to London in May, Abe said a U.K. outside the EU would be "less attractive" to Japanese investors, while Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn has said that Britain as part of EU makes makes the most sense for jobs, trade and costs. Nissan built a factory in the U.K. three decades ago and exports 80 percent of the cars made there. It employs 8,000 people in the country and has invested more than 3 billion pounds there in total.

"We obviously want the Nissan U.K. plant and engineering center to remain as competitive as possible when compared with other global entities," Ghosn said in a statement in February. "While we remain committed to our existing investment decisions, we will not speculate on the outcome nor what would happen in either scenarios."

A representative at Nissan said he has no further comment to add beyond those by the CEO.

Europe Access

Toyota Motor Corp., which opened its U.K. factory in 1992, said future investment in the country would be jeopardized and costs would rise should the country leave the EU, according to Tony Walker, a deputy managing director in the country. The investment programs for the next two to three years are not in danger, he said in March. Toyota exports about 90 percent of cars made in the U.K.

The carmaker, which employs 3,000 people in the U.K., is fully committed to its operations regardless of the outcome of the vote, spokesman Chris O'keefe said.

Any split from Europe may threaten exports of trains from Hitachi's new factory in the U.K. to the continent, Chief Executive Officer Toshiaki Higashiharasaid last month. The company opened the facility to build trains in Newton Aycliffe in County Durham, U.K. last year and aims to boost employment to 730 people.

"Access to Europe plays a very important role," Higashihara said on May 18. "We are strongly in favor of staying in the EU."

A decision for the U.K. to exit the EU would result in prolonged uncertainty and would be credit negative for U.K.-based companies such as the auto, manufacturing, food and beverage, and service sectors, Moody's Investors Service said in March. Many companies would probably curb investments until the implications of a Brexit become clear for trade, investment, regulations and labor costs, it said.

Too Close

Tariffs on traded goods could increase with an exit from the EU, eroding a 10 percent increase in trade the U.K. may have experienced being in the union, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Chris Rogers.

A YouGov poll for television network ITV found 45 percent would choose 'Leave,' compared with 41 percent picking 'Remain.' A separate survey by global market research company TNS showed 43 percent for 'Leave' and 41 percent for 'Remain.'

Some showed it was too close to call. The ORB poll for the Daily Telegraph, surveying people who say they will definitely vote in the June 23 referendum, showed Britons planning to vote to remain in the EU at 48 percent, compared with 47 percent intending to leave the bloc.

Polls in the past have been wrong in predicting the outcome of the 2014 Scottish referendum and last year's U.K. general elections. Among other world leaders who have called for the U.K. to stay within the EU are President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and New Zealand Prime Minister John Key.

(Updates with comment from Toyota in 12th paragraph.)